Strategic Political Alliance Poses Major Threat to Ruling APC Ahead of 2027 Elections

By Abubakar Shehu Dokoki

There has never been a more calculated and coordinated political alliance in recent Nigerian history than the emerging coalition that appears to be forming under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and its affiliates. Unlike previous alignments that often fell apart due to ego, mistrust, or lack of direction, this new alliance seems to be driven by deliberate strategy and shared purpose.

It all started when prominent political figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Governor Nasir el-Rufai hinted at a “new movement.” At the time, many dismissed it as mere political talk — a familiar pattern in Nigeria’s political landscape. However, with neither man disclosing the full details of the plan, it became clear this was a carefully calculated move. After all, how can you stop a plan you don’t understand?

Now that former rivals Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are reported to be working toward a common political front, the implications for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Tinubu’s administration are significant. In the 2023 elections, both men made substantial impacts — separately. A united front between them could present a formidable challenge in 2027.

Adding further weight to this coalition are influential figures such as former Senate President David Mark, ex-Governors Sule Lamido, Rauf Aregbesola, Rotimi Amaechi, and El-Rufai. These are not fringe politicians; they are individuals with deep-rooted influence in their regions and across Nigeria’s political terrain.

Interestingly, none of them has officially defected from their respective political parties. They remain within their structures, creating a situation that leaves the ruling party guessing. How does the government neutralize a movement whose form is still largely undefined?

There have already been signs of attempts to frustrate the alliance. When reports surfaced suggesting the Social Democratic Party (SDP) might serve as a vehicle for the coalition, leadership crises immediately erupted within the party — a move perceived by some observers as a deliberate ploy to destabilize the plan. Similarly, when attention shifted to ADC, reports of the party not meeting certain registration requirements began to emerge. Within the PDP itself, internal crises — particularly the ongoing fallout involving Nyesom Wike — have left the party weakened and divided.

Yet, despite these challenges, the alliance appears to be holding steady. Should it survive the typical political traps — internal disputes, character assassinations, or infiltration — it could seriously alter the political equation ahead of 2027. The movement seems prepared to leave Wike and his faction in the cold, while focusing on unifying Atiku and Peter Obi’s political bases and bringing in disaffected APC figures as well.

If this coalition maintains momentum and avoids fragmentation, it might very well pose the most significant threat to the APC’s hold on power. The silent, strategic groundwork being laid suggests this is more than mere political noise — it is a calculated effort to change the trajectory of Nigeria’s leadership.

In Nigeria’s high-stakes political game, this new alliance could be the wildcard that changes everything.